Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
